A new poll released today prepared by Public Policy Polling for a group supporting in Tuesday’s Democratic Congressional primary shows Sheyman with an 18-point lead over .
After reviewing the poll results, an editor from the independent Cook Political Report which analyzes House and Senate races, sees Schneider with a slightly better chance to win the Nov. 6 general election against .
The poll of 629 likely Democratic voters with a margin of error of 3.9 percent shows 45 percent prefer Sheyman while 27 percent like Schneider. has 7 percent support while .
The poll was taken after a week of advertising and telephone calls from groups supporting Sheyman flooded the area informing voters Schneider has made some donations to Republicans.
Of the people surveyed, 54 percent said they were less likely to vote for Schneider after learning about his donations. Schneider campaign manager Jarrod Backous dismissed the poll results.
“For weeks, the Sheyman campaign and MoveOn.org, along with other out-out-state allies, have been spreading lies about Brad Schneider and his progressive record,” Backous said. “There is no reason to believe anything that comes from these organizations with so little familiarity with the truth."
Sheyman’s campaign manager, Annie Weinberg, considers the results a validation of Sheyman’s efforts but remains cautions. "This poll reflects clearly the energy and momentum we feel on the ground,” she said. “We're encouraged by these numbers but we take nothing for granted.”
David Wasserman, the house races editor for Cook, told Patch today he thinks Schneider will fare better against Dold than Sheyman.
“Sheyman may well win the seat but they (the Democrats) will have a better chance with Schneider,” Wasserman said. “Sheyman could turn a learning Democrat race into a tossup. There is a block of pro business pro Israel voters who bristle at MoveOn.org and will likely side with Dold over Sheyman.”
MoveOn is one of the groups which have been advertising in support of Sheyman. Sheyman was its national mobilization director before leaving the job to run for Congress.
FYI, while I respect your passion, when your argument is that your candidate debates better than the other guy, you're in serious trouble. Debates don't matter.
Schneider would be the worst possible candidate to go up against Dold. If he’s smart (and I have no reason to doubt that he is), Dold will use Schneider’s past support of Kirk and other Republicans to drive a wedge between Schneider and the voters. First wedge will be between Schneider and the Democratic base (I am including here Dem-leaning “Independents,” who might not vote in primaries, but tend to support Dem candidates in the general.) How will Dold do this? Easy. All he has to do is inform people that Brad contributed 3 times more money to Mark Kirk over the years than he (Dold) gave to ANY GOP candidate (other than himself) his whole life. Or he might tell them Brad contributed just shy of $6000 to GOP candidates, which makes Dold’s little $1000 contribution (to Mark Kirk in 2010—same year Dold was running for Kirk’s old office) pale by comparison. Second wedge will be between Brad and the rest of the “Independents.” Dold merely has to say, “I’ve never been anything other than a Republican; you’ll always know where I stand.” Plenty of people vote “on character,” and they want someone who can demonstrate that they are firm in their convictions. With Brad, you never know—one minute he’s supporting right-of-center Republicans, the next minute he’s declared himself “a lifelong Progressive.”
Your list of officials who accuse the Sheyman campaign of "lying" are all Schneider supporters. I could give you an equal list of Ilya supporters who think he is correct in his criticism of Brad - supported by the public record ie facts. However, this is playground nonsense. The bottom line is that we trust Ilya to fight for equal funding for education, for fairer taxes, for a jobs bill, for the rights of workers, for saving Medicare and SS, and for appropriate financial regulation. Brad's support of conservatives, who are in opposition to all these things, makes us wonder what he really believes. And making a comparison to Karl Rove smacks of desperation.
“Sheyman's attacks have no factual basis”? So you’re saying Brad Schneider never made any of those donations to Kirk, Bennett, Johanns, Rogers, or Mark Kennedy? You’re saying Brad Schneider never voted in a Republican primary?
Regarding voting in a Republican Primary. It was done because there were no competitive races on the Democrat side, and Schneider (as he has explained) had a close personal friend running in a competitive Republican primary. If you want to fault him for supporting a friend, fine (perhaps Schneider even knowing Republicans makes him too conservative for you). I am sick of the distortions and the lies. Yes, Schneider gave a small amount of money to Republicans in the context of Israel. Does that make him any less of a Democrat...NO (just look at his Issues page on his website schneiderforcongress.com ).
It is a distortion of the truth, if not an outright lie, to have Brad claiming to be “a lifelong Progressive.” I have asked you a ba-zillion times already—do you (or anyone else on the Schneider campaign) even know what a Progressive is? Here, this might help: As you and I am sure Brad are aware, there are a lot of ways of being Jewish, from secular on up to Ultra-Orthodox. Brad’s claim of being a Progressive is akin to a person claiming to be Orthodox while eating a shrimp cocktail. In the car on a Saturday morning.
I can't speak to the viability of the poll - but I don't see the Schneider folks attacking John or Bavda. Last point - I can't think of any area where Ilya is "too left wing" - good education, affordable health care, jobs?
I respect your arguments, but I do disagree. Remember, most voters in the Tenth like Kirk. Brad's support of Kirk will help independents trust him as someone who can think for themselves and not blindly follow an ideology or a leader. This is Dold's one chance to recast himself as a moderate after running as a Tea Party Republican two years ago. Ilya gives him the perfect foil to run against. He will portray himself as an experienced, centrist leader, which we all know isn't true. If Dold is successful, it will be a LONG time before we can get a Democrat into this seat.
Its amazing how a 25 kid who's only "experience" has been jobs working for special interests in DC, comes home to run for Congress, and funds his nearly entire campaign with direct help from his old employers. Those same employers then decide to spend a hundred thousand dollars in Independent Expenditures to help him win his primary, by establishing a purity test and falsely accusing the other candidate a member of the opposing party. If this was the Tea Party, Club for Growth or another right wing organization people would go bananas. But since it is MoveOn and DFA, its ok? Incredible. Let me ask this. A vote comes up in the House. The district, being more centrist leaning than Mr. Sheyman, wants him to vote for a compromise and pass the legislation. MoveOn sees an opportunity to make a political statement and wants him to vote against it. Who is Ilya loyal to? His friends, former employer and the group that has funded and controls 95% of his campaign cash, or the voters of this district?
Alex, Oooooo, kinda begs the question: WHY didn’t Brad Schneider run as a Centrist?
a.) You’re looking at the old map b.) Most of the people who “like Kirk” are Republicans c.) Ilya is Dold's "one chance to recast himself as a moderate"? Dold will recast himself as a moderate no matter who he runs against. That is how he won in 2010, by selling himself as a Moderate. No reason to think he won’t do so again. d.) By **selling himself** as “a lifelong Progressive” instead of the Blue Dog that he is, Schneider appears downright untrustworthy, even sleazy. e.) All this noise about whether or not Schneider is a true Democrat will not go away after the Primary. If Ilya’s team hadn’t dug it up, the Dold people would have. f.) Yes, Ilya worked for MoveOn. So what? He’s damned proud of it. He has the endorsement of MoveOn, DFA, Progressives United. So what? Ilya’s a proud Progressive, these are Progressive organizations! g.) Come to think of it, why isn’t Brad expressing outrage that MoveOn, DFA, and Progressives United didn’t endorse him?
Early in the primary season we were “polled” by some outfit that wondered if we would still vote for Sheyman if we knew he was only 25 and had worked for the extremist group, MoveOn. Yes!, we said, but we understood that the pollster was trying to convince us NOT to vote for Ilya.
Schneider people, don’t get all huffy and holier than thou. Early in the primary season we were “polled” by some outfit that wondered if we would still vote for Sheyman if we knew he was only 25 and had worked for the extremist group, MoveOn. Yes!, we said, but we understood that the pollster was trying to convince us NOT to vote for Ilya.
Aren't enough Indies in this district to make up for the Dem deficit that will occur if Brad runs in the fall. Dems, by and large, do not trust Brad. Might have something to do with the little Truth-in-Advertising problem he’s having with his message. You just can’t say, “I gave money to Kirk,” and then turn around and say, “I am a lifelong Progressive!” When people hear these two statements coming from the same mouth, well, they just know what to believe anymore. Go away, Brad. You were a detriment to your Party when you chose to support Kirk over Seals or whoever the Dems were running in election after election from 2002 thru 2008, you were a detriment to your Party when you chose not to rally your fellow Kirk-Democrats to help get Seals into office in 2010, and you continue to be a detriment to your Party when you misrepresent yourself--“I am a lifelong Progressive!”--and then have your minions throw insults at us (“Liar!”) when we call you out on it.
The “written statements of support for UN invasion of Israel's sovereignty on threat of severe consequences from the United States” you’re referring to? Taken from someone’s old Model UN notebook-- who knows? maybe yours-- “Model UN,” being a role playing exercise in high school for debate nerds! You’re behaving like the Reese Witherspoon character in Election. A new low for the Schneider campaign. Incredible. In-freaking-credible.