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Dueling Polls Beg Questions About 10th District Race

Partisan surveys leave doubt to potential outcome of one of country's most closely watched Congressional campaigns between Dold and Schneider.

The latest available polling in the 10th Congressional District race between Democratic challenger of Deerfield and show widely varying results.

A survey released Thursday by the House Majority PAC, a Democratic super PAC, and the Service Employees International Union (SEIU) shows Dold and Schneider tied while the North Shore Congressman’s internal numbers have him 10 points ahead.

Both Dold and Schneider have the support of 46 percent of the 400 likely 10th Congressional District voters surveyed between Aug. 8 and 12 with a margin of error of 4.9 percent in the Democratic poll prepared by Greenberg, Quinlan Rosner, a Democratic pollster.

Dold campaign spokesperson John McGovern was quick to respond with the Congressman’s latest internal polling information showing him ahead, disputing the findings of the Democratic poll.

"This partisan poll is inconsistent with our own internal surveys which show Rep. Dold in the lead and indicate that his support continues to grow among voters across the 10th District who respect his thoughtful, independent-minded leadership," McGovern said.

Dold’s numbers showed him with a 10-point lead, garnering the support of 42 percent of 400 likely voters with a margin of error of 4.9 percent. Schneider had the backing of 32 percent of those surveyed. It was prepared by McLaughlin & Associates between June 20 and 21.

Just over two months ago, Schneider released his own internal poll showing both candidates with the support of 39 percent of those questioned. That survey, prepared by Normington Petts, also talked to 400 likely voters and had a 4.9 percent margin of error.

Voters will be assured of plenty of opportunity to hear the messages of both Dold and Schneider. The House Majority PAC and the SEIU have  after Labor Day for the 10th District race and two others in the Chicago area.

Dold has already committed to spending $1.88 million on television advertising to keep his seat, according to a story in Crain’s Chicago Business. Dold’s expenditures are independent of anything outside groups may spend to help him.

Daniel Krudop August 17, 2012 at 11:56 AM
"The House Majority PAC and the SEIU have reserved $2.4 million for television advertising after Labor Day for the 10th District race and two others in the Chicago area." I hope Mr. Schneider saw what happened to the State's Democratic leadership at the State Fair. The SEIU especially would turn on him in a second if he were to be elected and not comply with their entire agenda. They've done such wonderful things for our State (unmanageable debt to the point of possible bankruptcy and miserable bond ratings) why not elect like minded politicians at the National level, as if we don't already have enough of them. He should remember the following familiar tale: "The Scorpion and the Turtle is a fable about a scorpion asking a turtle to carry him across a river. The turtle is afraid of being stung during the trip, but the scorpion argues that if it stung the turtle, the turtle would sink and the scorpion would drown. The turtle agrees and begins carrying the scorpion, but midway across the river the scorpion does indeed sting the turtle, dooming them both. When asked why, the scorpion points out that this is its nature. The fable is used to illustrate the position that the behavior of some creatures is irrepressible, no matter how they are treated and no matter what the consequences."
george lemieux August 17, 2012 at 01:10 PM
http://dockets.justia.com/docket/illinois/ilndce/1:2012cv06375/272742/ Congressman Dold tells us he knows "the challenges of running a small-business." Yeap, he does know, it is the law he doesn't. Would you want to be represented by such a dishonest man?
Daniel Krudop August 17, 2012 at 01:44 PM
One meaning of dishonest is the intent to mislead. Using that meaning and considering how campaigns are run, there are probably about 100 dishonest Senators and about 435 dishonest House members plus a dishonest President. It's probably been that way since John Adams beat Thomas Jefferson in 1796.
DG August 17, 2012 at 01:52 PM
Vote for Schneider, Dold will only rubber-stamp the Bush policies that got us into this mess in the first place.
Guido McGinty August 17, 2012 at 02:19 PM
George, they've deleted all of your entertaining posts. Who doesn't love a stalker? Somehow, this post is still up: http://northbrook.patch.com/blog_posts/congressman-robert-dold-il-10th-district-is-smart
Abigail August 17, 2012 at 02:33 PM
My husband received a poll call that appeared to be slanted towards Schneider, so he refused to answer the questions. If a candidate is going to do a poll, he/she needs to do it in a manner that generates honest answers. This was not honest.
Abigail August 17, 2012 at 02:47 PM
George's statements are only his side of the story and he expects us to take his word for it. Not good enough for me. It sounds like sour grapes. All his link proves is that he has filed a lawuit--anyone can do that. Nothing has been settled in court; therefore, he shouldn't be posting anything. He is attempting to damage the reputation of someone, or an organization, who--based on whatever evidence there might be--may be found not guilty at trial.
Me August 17, 2012 at 03:44 PM
@Steve - Do you actually know what begging the question mean? If you are truly a professional journalist, I would have hoped so. In case you don't here is a definition. Begging the Question is a fallacy in which the premises include the claim that the conclusion is true or (directly or indirectly) assume that the conclusion is true. This sort of "reasoning" typically has the following form. Premises in which the truth of the conclusion is claimed or the truth of the conclusion is assumed (either directly or indirectly). Claim C (the conclusion) is true. This sort of "reasoning" is fallacious because simply assuming that the conclusion is true (directly or indirectly) in the premises does not constitute evidence for that conclusion. Obviously, simply assuming a claim is true does not serve as evidence for that claim. This is especially clear in particularly blatant cases: "X is true. The evidence for this claim is that X is true." Some cases of question begging are fairly blatant, while others can be extremely subtle. Here is an example:: "If such actions were not illegal, then they would not be prohibited by the law." The quick and dirty tip is to remember that when something begs the question, it begs the question: what is your support for that premise?
Walter White August 17, 2012 at 03:49 PM
That IS definitely the best one.
Margie August 17, 2012 at 06:52 PM
I've always been amazed when I hear "journalists" use the phrase "That begs the question, what happens etc., etc..." You are so correct "Me," our so-called educated journalists show how unqualified they really are. Thanks for bringing that up!
Walter White August 17, 2012 at 07:02 PM
Wow, more posts complaining about the level of journalism on the Patch. Just can't get enough of those. And by the what exactly is "etc., etc..."? One is sufficient.
Cole Pierce August 17, 2012 at 11:50 PM
Someone give George his $25 already. I might vote for Dold just for the entertainment he gave us in called George.
McCloud August 17, 2012 at 11:56 PM
Schneider is what we already have in congress, tax spend and blame.
Mark August 18, 2012 at 01:40 AM
Are you honestly suggesting that America can and should still blame Bush? Need I remind that American debt has quadrupuled, GM shares, after the bailouts have lost 39% of their value, future bailouts and higher debt cielings are being prepared for and you want to blame Bush for this! It's been 4 years now, and you simply resort to blaming Bush and assuming, presenting no factually based argument, that Dold will "ruber stamp the Bush policies"? Need I remind you that Obama even extended the Bush tax-cut? Please have a cogent point when going out of your way to post your propaganda
Mark August 18, 2012 at 01:42 AM
Vote for Congressman Dold, a VOICE, not just a vote that will bring his record of fierce independence and common-sense leadership back to DC
Seriously? August 18, 2012 at 05:57 AM
I am not someone who normally participates in these discussions, but I feel compelled to do so since I know George on a professional level. I am a longtime resident of Northbrook who used Rose Pest Control for over a decade, specifically George. He is the best! George is professional, honest, and knows his business! After he left Rose, I received his new contact info, and there was no question I was going to continue using his services. Rose called me for a year harassing me on why I would not use them anymore. George on the other hand, never bad mouthed Rose and elaborated on what they did to him. Knowing George as I do, I fully believe him and his allegations. He is just another hard working man, working his a-- off, trying to get by, being taken advantage of by the rich and powerful. It happens ALL THE TIME. He has every right to stand up for himself and others and seek justice. I wish George nothing but the best! I hope he prevails and does not get bogged down by the ridiculous court system that he faces.
george lemieux August 18, 2012 at 05:08 PM
@ Seriously "I wish George nothing but the best!" Wow...you are so sweet whomever you are...And I wish you the same, in everything and may you never have to fight a politician. (not because they are immortal gods for they are not, nor because of the stress for as you think about it, it is a privilege to fight bastards but because of the attacks from those who don't know you but since you go for "their candidate" you must be bad somehow...their comments will break you and nothing else. See you around and again, thanks for the amazing words you left here. And now get ready to be trashed by pro-Dold crowd hahahahaha
Bringin' Down Briarwood August 18, 2012 at 05:43 PM
Yes, Bush is to blame!!! And i would have said the same thing if McCain were in office. The Cheney presidency was not a little blip of the economic radar. It was a historic trainwreck. Unprecedented action was needed on the second day of post-Bush. When has that EVER happened? It's laughable. I don;t care who is in office after that trainwreck of a presidency. They should be graded on a curve and anybody who doesn't is simply trying the help some silly. partisan propaganda machine.
Bringin' Down Briarwood August 18, 2012 at 05:44 PM
Like I said ... silly partisan, propaganda machine.
Bringin' Down Briarwood August 18, 2012 at 05:49 PM
And before we're silly enough to find Bush and Cheney blameless for all of this, we might want to remember who the Fed chairman ... and remains. Ohhhhhh, but I'm sure he had no input, right?
macromite September 03, 2012 at 01:09 AM
If Brad will serve his district for one term, I would definitely vote for him.
Michael Steinberg September 22, 2012 at 06:54 PM
Patch should have the journalistic integrity to investigate the facts in this article: http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/09/21/dem-candidate-brad-schneider-americas-smallest-small-businessman. If, as it claims, Brad Schneider made no money from his small business, which he cites as a qualification for serving in Congress, the voters of the Tenth District need to know. I checked out Cadence Consulting's website (cadence-strategy.com) and it seems like the company really does nothing. No phone number or email address? No employees? No listed clients? But BICYCLING links? What's going on here, Brad Schneider needs to clarify because it seems as though his "business experience" is, at the very least, a fabricated hoax.

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